U.S. President Donald Trump told Al Jazeera that economic measures and military strikes against Iran were effective, saying the United States is “winning very big” in the conflict. The confrontation remains focused partly on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. The U.S. is enforcing sanctions and maintaining a naval blockade, while Iran says the strait remains closed and diplomatic talks have stalled. Prediction-market pricing for a 2026 US-Iran agreement involving reconstruction funding has shifted from 16% to 13.5% over 24 hours and later showed a 15.5% YES probability in newer market information; some sub-markets recorded higher probabilities. The broader outlook remains skeptical amid military, diplomatic and operational hurdles. Iran’s hardline chief of police, Ahmadreza Radan, accused Washington of seeking to create chaos in Iran to advance its interests, according to local media reports. Further U.S. military action or sanctions, reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and statements from Trump, Iranian officials, or mediators in Qatar and Pakistan could alter expectations.