Yen remains under pressure as intervention fails to overcome import demand

The yen has repeatedly approached ¥160 per dollar despite official buying intervention, as corporate demand for dollars to pay for imported energy and raw materials continues to outweigh temporary relief from authorities and speculative positioning. In the April 21, 2025 episode, the Japanese Ministry of Finance conducted two rounds of intervention after USD/JPY rose above 160, moving the pair from about 160.20 to roughly 154.40 before it returned to a 154-to-157 range within a week. Later market data showed the yen near ¥159.45 per dollar in Tokyo as of 5 p.m. on the 25th, with another quoted rate at 159.3400, reflecting different timing or market sources. Speculative short-yen positions were about $4 billion as of Aug. 18, roughly one-third of the $12 billion position before coordinated intervention, although leveraged funds had held multi-year-high net short positions before the April 2025 operation and subsequently rebuilt them. Japan’s imports reached a record for a second consecutive month in July, while the country posted a trade deficit for a third straight month as crude oil, naphtha and other energy costs rose. Import prices were about 30% higher than a year earlier, reviving comparisons with the 2022 yen decline, when import-price growth approached 50% and the currency fell from the ¥130 range to above ¥150 in about two months. A wide interest-rate gap, including late-April 2025 10-year yields of about 4.5% in the United States versus 0.9% in Japan, also favors the dollar. The Bank of Japan could support the yen through a rate increase or stronger guidance, but a move already priced into markets may have limited effect. Companies are responding with longer supplier agreements, futures, forwards, options and other hedges, while renewed weakness beyond ¥160 could prompt further intervention.

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