BOJ underlying inflation stays above 2% for 22nd month despite July slowdown

The Bank of Japan said its July core consumer price indicators showed underlying inflation remaining above 2% for a 22nd consecutive month, even as the core CPI excluding fresh food and special factors slowed to 2.3% year-on-year from 2.6% in June. The nationwide core CPI published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications rose 1.8%, remaining in the 1% range for a seventh straight month. Stripping out food, energy and policy-related effects produced stronger readings: core-core CPI excluding special factors accelerated to 2.2% from 2.0%, while the food-and-energy-excluded measure rose to 1.6% from 1.4%. The trimmed mean (inflation after removing the highest and lowest 10% of price changes) returned to 2.0% for the first time since November 2025, although the weighted median was 1.1% and the mode was 1.4%. The share of rising items edged down to 72.4% from 72.6%, while falling items increased to 23.3% from 22.9%, suggesting price increases remain broad but less extensive than during the 2023–2024 peak. The results may support arguments for future rate hikes, but the weaker median, mode and breadth measures remain risks to the durability of inflation. The BOJ will assess whether a virtuous cycle between wages and prices has taken hold as it considers monetary policy.

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