European natural-gas prices could rise above €100 per megawatt-hour this winter, returning to levels associated with the 2022 energy crisis, as historically low storage, disrupted Middle East LNG flows and competition with Asia constrain supplies. Dutch TTF futures briefly climbed above €68 per megawatt-hour, the highest level since early 2023, while analysts have projected a possible range of €90 to €120 if cold weather and supply restrictions persist. Gas prices above €100 may be needed to attract enough flexible U.S. LNG away from Asia, with Europe potentially requiring about 64 billion cubic meters, or roughly 77% of total U.S. exports. EU storage was about 63% full, among the lowest levels recorded for this point in the year and roughly 18 percentage points below the five-year average. A hot summer has increased electricity demand, reduced nuclear and wind generation and complicated the refill effort. A gradual recovery in Middle East LNG exports could ease the pressure, but failure to restore flows before winter could bring higher consumer bills and, in a worst-case scenario, limits on industrial gas use. Qatar’s new supply is not expected to reach full capacity before the second half of 2027, while the EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports is due to begin at the start of 2027.