Countries affected by conflict produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, representing more than 43% of global supply in 2026, according to Reuters calculations using International Energy Agency data. Six months after U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, the disruption has no clear end in sight. The Russia-Ukraine war has reduced production and refining, including in Kazakhstan, while conflict in Libya and U.S. restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added pressure. The current Gulf disruption is estimated at 5 million to 7 million bpd (barrels per day), with Saudi Arabia rerouting oil to the Red Sea and Gulf exporters secretly moving supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt’s Suez Canal in July showed that risks to total flows remain high. The Gulf and Ukraine conflicts have cut global refining capacity (the ability to turn crude into fuels) by about a tenth, contributing to fuel shortages, higher prices, inflation and borrowing costs. The International Energy Agency has released record emergency stockpiles, but those releases are now largely complete as global inventories continue to decline.