Gold holds above $4,600 ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech

Gold held above $4,600 an ounce on Thursday, with spot prices up about 0.2% to $4,599.57 and U.S. futures near $4,652.70, as investors positioned for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first major Jackson Hole address on Friday. Bullion retained most of a powerful August rally—up roughly 14% on the month—after reaching a three-month high earlier in the week before hotter inflation data interrupted a five-session advance. Support has come from concerns over government borrowing, dollar weakness, falling long-term yields and expanded U.S. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated bonds, themes that have revived the so-called debasement trade alongside scarce assets including Bitcoin, with federal debt above $40 trillion sharpening the debate. July PCE inflation remained at 3.7% year over year. Markets now assign about a 36% probability to a September rate hike and roughly 72% odds of an increase by December. A hawkish Warsh message could lift real yields and the dollar and pressure non-yielding gold, while a less aggressive tone could reinforce the debasement narrative and reopen a path toward $4,700.

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