Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket indicate that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is more likely to rise further this year. Kalshi assigns a 56% probability that the yield will reach or exceed 4.75% by the end of 2026 and a 27% probability that it will exceed 5%. Polymarket estimates roughly two-thirds odds that the yield will break above 4.8% at least once this year. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is seeking to lower yields through measures including expanded long-term Treasury buybacks, but market reactions have been unfavorable. Barclays strategists say sticky inflation, fiscal deficits, Treasury supply and the term premium could push yields higher, estimating fair value for the 10-year yield at about 4.95%, roughly 25 basis points above current levels. Rising Japanese government bond yields and increased AI capital spending could also weaken overseas demand for Treasuries. At around 4.7%, the 10-year yield is becoming a stronger competitor to U.S. equities, potentially marking a shift from TINA (no alternative) toward TARA (real alternatives).