China’s refiners have reportedly increased purchases of heavily discounted Iranian crude after the Trump administration intensified sanctions on Iran, the New York Times reported. China remains a key buyer in Iran’s oil market, although its imports are lower than last year. The activity underscores the limits of U.S. efforts to restrict a major source of revenue for Tehran and could affect global crude prices as markets assess geopolitical risks. Prediction-market pricing puts the odds of crude reaching a new all-time high at 1.8% by September 30 and 12.5% by December 31. Investors are watching comments from OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud, along with changes in U.S. policy, sanctions enforcement, China’s oil-import data and U.S.-Iran relations. These developments will help determine the likelihood of a new crude-price record this year.