President Donald Trump warned Iran that any new naval mines placed in the Strait of Hormuz would be destroyed after declaring that all existing mines had been removed. He also designated the waterway as "new US territory," a politically forceful phrase without established legal effect. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, but shipping data show only about 10 vessels recently transited it, compared with a pre-war average of 130 to 140 per day. The confrontation began in late February 2026, when Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy deployed small minelaying craft during a wider U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict. After Trump’s March 10 warning, U.S. forces destroyed between 10 and 16 Iranian minelaying vessels and deployed minesweepers; U.S. intelligence had estimated that Iran held about 6,000 naval mines before the conflict. Earlier records said clearance operations began in April and remained ongoing and potentially protracted, leaving a discrepancy over the timing and final status of the operation. Diplomatic efforts have stalled, with Iran seeking sanctions relief and the release of frozen assets before considering cooperation on restoring normal shipping. The disruption leaves Japan, South Korea, India and China exposed to difficult choices involving strategic reserves and alternative crude supplies. The YES probability of the "Zero Ships Transit Hormuz" prediction-market contract had fallen to 15.4%, while markets continued to watch U.S. military statements, vessel traffic, Iran’s response and developments in the broader conflicts.