Equity derivatives traders are positioning for rising U.S. stock-market volatility into the November midterm elections, with VIX futures climbing from about 17.4 for September to 19 for October and 19.7 for November in a steepening term structure. Cboe’s S&P 500 daily options expiring on Election Day and the next session imply roughly a 1.4% one-day index move on Nov. 4. Historical Cboe research shows realized volatility was higher than the prior year in 80% of midterm cycles since 1945, rising 3.5 points on average and 6 points when one party held both the White House and Congress, while the S&P 500’s midterm-year average return is about 4% and the median as low as 1%. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett’s team says U.S. stocks could fall more than 10% next year—meeting the usual correction threshold—if Democrats capture both the Senate and the Texas governorship race involving Greg Abbott. Growing pushback in both parties against heavy AI infrastructure spending adds a wildcard for the market’s leading investment theme. Nvidia’s earnings and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech remain this week’s main catalysts, yet spot VIX closed Monday at 15.8 versus a 19.4 long-term average, keeping hedge costs relatively low; SpotGamma’s Brent Kochuba said that makes now an opportune time to buy protective options. Some traders also expect Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to support markets ahead of the vote, though subdued volatility may still understate political risk yet to be fully priced.