Ukraine’s grain exports through Black Sea ports fell 75% in the first two weeks of August from the same period a year earlier, while 539,000 metric tons were exported between August 1 and August 21, compared with 1.73 million tons a year earlier. Up to 70 vessels are waiting near the Danube’s Sulina Canal, where pilot shortages, weather, air raid alerts and priority for fuel and other cargoes are limiting traffic to as few as two to three vessels a day. Delays can cost up to $8,000 per day. The blockade has left about 60 million metric tons of grain in Ukrainian silos and created an estimated 11-million-ton storage shortfall as wheat harvesting peaks and corn production follows. Falling domestic prices are below production costs, threatening the harvest-sale proceeds that typically fund about half of winter planting. Projected logistics losses are $3 billion, while the central bank estimates a $2.5 billion decline in hard-currency revenues for the remainder of 2026. The disruption threatens Ukraine’s 2027 harvest, farmers’ solvency and food supplies and prices in Africa and the Middle East.