Dollar slips 0.2% as Treasury yields fall ahead of PCE, Jackson Hole

The US dollar fell against major currencies on Monday as a rally in government bonds pushed benchmark 10-year Treasury yields down to 4.18% from last week’s 4.31% high. The dollar index declined 0.2% to 102.35 in early New York trading, reducing the yield advantage of dollar-denominated assets as investors positioned for Thursday’s July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday. Economists expect core PCE inflation to remain at 2.7% year-over-year, unchanged from June, although an upside surprise could strengthen expectations for another rate hike in September. Markets have priced in a September pause, leaving Powell’s tone—hawkish or dovish—as a potential catalyst for the dollar’s next move. Gold rose 0.4% to $1,920 an ounce, oil futures gained 1.2% to $82.50 a barrel and the pan-European Stoxx 600 advanced 0.1%. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.3% to 1.3525 per US dollar after reaching a three-month low last week, helped by firmer crude prices and a slight uptick in wholesale trade. Analysts warned that the loonie’s recovery may be temporary because the Bank of Canada may hold rates steady in September, while elevated borrowing costs continue to pressure Canada’s housing market. The week’s direction is expected to depend on the PCE reading and Powell’s remarks, with broader currency trends tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy path relative to other major central banks.

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