Australian Retirement Trust builds biggest yen overweight in years on BOJ rate-hike bet

Australian Retirement Trust (ART), Australia’s second-largest pension fund, has built its biggest yen overweight in several years after steadily increasing its yen exposure and reducing US dollar holdings over the past six months. The fund manages about A$370 billion, roughly 365 trillion won and about $265 billion under the conversion used in the earlier record. Senior portfolio manager Jimmy Louca said the market is pricing too little risk of additional Bank of Japan rate increases and that the yen’s fair value is around ¥150 per dollar, with scope to strengthen into the upper 140s. Bloomberg-compiled swap data put the probability of a September BOJ hike at about 80% and an October increase at 100%, while Louca said the central bank could signal two further hikes beyond the next move. ART increased its Japanese equity allocation in March 2026, particularly financial stocks, and remains underweight US Treasuries by about 0.5 percentage point. Louca expects the 30-year Treasury yield to move toward 5.5%, arguing that above-target inflation, resilient US growth and capital demand from artificial-intelligence investment will continue to pressure yields. He described U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-dated bond buyback expansion as a temporary measure that does not resolve those pressures. ART’s repositioning may signal growing institutional interest in the yen and Japanese financial stocks if markets reassess the pace of BOJ policy normalization.

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