Indian refiners are reducing their reliance on Russian crude as Ukrainian attacks disrupt Russian export flows and shipment volumes remain volatile. India, the world’s third-largest oil importer, is turning increasingly to suppliers in the Middle East and Africa, as well as spot markets (short-term oil purchases), to meet demand. The shift follows significant disruptions that began in March and may signal tighter oil availability, with potential implications for global crude prices. Market pricing suggests traders are treating the supply constraints as possible indicators of future price movements. OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA), an energy-market watchdog, could influence the outlook through production changes or strategic-reserve announcements. Further geopolitical developments affecting Russian exports or regional stability will also be important for pricing. The material invites readers to sign up for live prediction-market analysis powered by Vera.