The July US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is due from the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Friday, August 30, 2024, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. Dow Jones-surveyed economists expect headline PCE inflation to rise 0.2% from June and remain at 2.5% annually, while core PCE is projected to increase 0.2% monthly and 2.7% year over year. Both annual readings would be unchanged from June, with headline inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target but below the 4% peak recorded in mid-2023. Fed funds futures showed about a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September 17-18 meeting as of late August. A cooler-than-expected report could strengthen expectations for easing and support equity markets, while a hotter reading could lift Treasury yields and pressure rate-sensitive technology and real-estate stocks. The data also matters to consumers because it tracks prices for goods and services including groceries and healthcare, with inflation trends affecting borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. An in-line result would likely reinforce the case for a September cut, while any surprise could create volatility across asset classes.