Swiss Franc Weakens Against Dollar After Hotter-Than-Expected PCE Inflation Data

The Swiss franc weakened against the US dollar on Friday after January core Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation exceeded forecasts, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% month over month versus a 0.3% consensus estimate, while annual growth accelerated to 2.8% from 2.6% in December and topped the 2.7% forecast. The US dollar index climbed and USD/CHF traded higher as markets reduced expectations for near-term Fed easing. CME FedWatch showed the probability of a rate cut at the March meeting falling to near zero, while the odds of a cut by June declined to roughly 60% from about 75% before the data. Higher US rates can widen the yield gap with Swiss assets and support the dollar, while a softer franc may help Swiss exporters and reduce pressure for Swiss National Bank intervention. Traders are watching the February jobs report, the next CPI release and central-bank communications, while any evidence of disinflation or a more dovish Fed stance could reverse the pair's move.

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