The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.65% from a previously reported 4.635% as investors assessed inflation and economic data for clues about the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. July PCE inflation rose 0.2% month over month and 3.7% year over year, above forecasts for 0.1% and 3.6%, respectively, while core PCE increased 0.2% monthly and 3.3% annually, matching expectations. A separate second-quarter 2025 release showed PCE prices rising 5.3% quarter over quarter, above the 5.1% forecast and up from 4.8% in the first quarter; core PCE rose 4.9% from 4.5%. The records report different measures and frequencies, not one inflation figure. Market-implied September rate-hike odds rose to about 42% from 36% after the July data, while September rate-cut odds fell from 70% to around 55% after the second-quarter release, according to CME FedWatch. GDP growth of 1.5% in the second quarter matched the initial estimate, July durable-goods orders rose 1.1% versus a 0.5% forecast, and consumer spending and income were described as slightly above forecasts in one account, although another said real consumer spending stagnated. A third consecutive oil-price decline limited the rise in Treasury yields. Investors also debated the Treasury’s plan to at least double buybacks, which Stanley Druckenmiller said undermines the market’s credibility and misses an opportunity for meaningful debt reform.