Iran’s strategic reserves stand at approximately 1.56 billion liters of gasoline and 1.28 billion liters of diesel, enough for about 12 days under normal consumption patterns. Under current conditions, estimates place the depletion window between 22 and 33 days. Domestic refineries produce roughly 130 million liters of gasoline daily, while consumption is about 135 million liters, with the crisis assessment citing a daily shortfall of 14 million to 15 million liters. A US naval blockade on Iranian fuel imports, in place since roughly mid-July 2026, has removed shipments that previously helped cover the gap. Conflict damage has destroyed 52 fuel storage tanks across Tehran and Alborz provinces, with infrastructure losses estimated at around $1 billion, while damaged refineries are operating at reduced capacity. Long lines and purchase limits of roughly 20 liters per vehicle have appeared at Tehran petrol stations, and some stations have closed. The government has introduced fixed daily allocations for stations, effectively rationing fuel. Panic buying could shorten the supply window toward 22 days, while normalized consumption could extend it toward 33 days. Heavily subsidized fuel prices support high demand, but raising prices carries major political risks after subsidy cuts contributed to nationwide protests in 2019 that left hundreds dead. Officials have warned that strategic reserves cannot sustain the current shortfalls indefinitely, making social stability a potentially greater concern than the direct impact on commodity prices.