U.S. President Donald Trump told Al Jazeera that economic measures and military strikes against Iran were proving effective, saying the United States is “winning very big” in the conflict. The confrontation remains focused partly on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. The U.S. is enforcing sanctions and maintaining a naval blockade, while Iran says the strait remains closed and diplomatic talks have stalled. Prediction-market behavior points to a lower likelihood of a US-Iran agreement that includes reconstruction funding, with the YES probability at 15.5%, although some sub-markets have recently shown higher deal probabilities. The broader outlook remains skeptical as tensions rise. Further U.S. military action or sanctions, any reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and announcements by mediators in Qatar and Pakistan could change market expectations. Future statements from Trump and Iranian officials are also expected to influence trading around a potential US-Iran deal.