Nearly half of global oil supply, or about 45 million barrels per day, originates in regions affected by conflict, according to a recent OilPrice.com report. Conflicts in the Middle East, combined with export restrictions from Libya and Venezuela, have created physical supply challenges, global rationing and pressure on inventories and oil flows. The International Energy Agency said current global supply has fallen below demand. Brent crude is trading at approximately $86.27 per barrel. Prediction-market pricing implies a 2.1% probability that crude will reach a new all-time high by September 30, rising to 12.5% by December 31. Market participants will be watching developments in the Middle East, OPEC production policy, global demand and announcements from major oil producers.