Bitcoin remains locked in a tug-of-war around $80,000, a level that now doubles as both a psychological round number and the market’s capital-weighted average holding cost of roughly $79,600, according to CryptoQuant analysis. Holding daily and weekly closes above that mark would push most deployed capital back into profit and strengthen the case that the rebound is evolving into a more durable recovery; failure keeps the structure closer to a bear-market bounce. Overhead, URPD data show nearly 975,000 BTC clustered between $83,307 and $84,569, reinforcing a dense supply wall also flagged near $83,000–$86,000, while average unrealized profits near 25% and about $88 million in whale realizations add near-term selling risk. Support is watched around $76,996–$78,258, with a deeper demand pocket near $63,111 if that zone breaks. Separately, a negative Coinbase premium and a Delta-Thermo Market Multiple of 2.03 point to absent U.S. spot demand and neutral consolidation, even as short-term holder metrics and funding rates show limited overheating and Glassnode’s momentum gauge has turned positive after the roughly 20% rally.