Iranian oil loadings fell to 248,000 barrels a day in August from 1.85 million barrels a day between March and April, according to commodity intelligence firm Kpler. Meanwhile, non-Iranian crude shipments from the Persian Gulf rose to about 5.2 million barrels a day in the week beginning Aug. 3, including ship-to-ship transfers, or roughly 9 million barrels a day when pipeline flows through Adnoc’s Fujairah terminal and Aramco’s East-West line are included. Regional producers are shipping about 65% of prewar volumes, while Kpler says Iran is shutting in production as inventories at Kharg Island fell by 700,000 barrels this month to 19.3 million despite almost no loading activity. Tehran still has more than 80 million barrels afloat outside the blockade zone, most already committed to buyers, but payment generally arrives at Chinese ports one to two months after discharge, leaving an estimated five to six months of export revenue before receipts effectively stop. Petrochemical exports, Iran’s second-largest source of foreign earnings, have declined 63% since early 2026, while corn, soybean and wheat imports remain below their five-year range. The United Arab Emirates halted trade with Iran on Aug. 19, closing another import channel. Kpler describes a trilemma for Tehran: absorb the blockade, escalate, or negotiate on terms it has rejected. The firm does not consider escalation inevitable or imminent, but says its relative appeal may increase the longer the blockade continues. Brent traded near $88.04 a barrel on Wednesday, down 0.6%, while West Texas Intermediate, tracked by United States Oil Fund (NYSE:USO), stood at $83.12, down more than 4% for the week. Oil prices have declined after the latest U.S. sanctions package targeted more than 60 entities linked to Iran’s regime and threatened secondary sanctions on foreign entities doing business with Tehran.