Kalshi traders are skeptical that the House will pass another reconciliation bill quickly, assigning it a 23% chance before January, 22% before December and 9% before November. Congress returns from its August recess to a crowded September agenda that includes government funding and a potential package covering defense, agriculture and election-related measures. The House passed a budget resolution last month to lay the groundwork, but the Senate has not approved the same framework. Lawmakers have roughly three weeks to pursue their priorities before another monthlong recess in October, with the midterm elections approaching. Congress is expected to focus primarily on a continuing resolution, or CR (temporary government funding measure), to avoid a shutdown. The House version would fund the government at existing levels through Dec. 4, while the Senate version would extend funding through Dec. 11 and includes a provision limiting a White House budget office rule that would expand political appointees' authority over federal grant distribution. Rep. Randy Fine said he was very confident the House would pass a CR before the Sept. 30 deadline, while Rep. Andy Harris expressed doubt that much would be accomplished in September.