U.S. allies have questioned President Donald Trump’s assertion that the Strait of Hormuz is completely free of mines, warning that residual Iranian mines could still threaten shipping. Any disruption to the critical maritime passage could have significant global economic implications because it carries a significant portion of the world’s oil supply. The skepticism adds uncertainty over shipping safety and could fuel speculation that tensions between the United States and Iran may escalate. Market pricing indicates a slight increase in the perceived risk that no ships will transit the Strait by August 31. Observers are expected to track official statements and actions from the U.S. and Iran, including mine detections, military activity, diplomatic efforts and changes in rhetoric by President Trump, the Iranian government or military officials. Markets may respond to information pointing toward either heightened risk or de-escalation.