Deutsche Bank sees U.S. Treasury expanding long-term bond buybacks beyond $4 billion

Deutsche Bank strategists expect the U.S. Treasury to take a more active approach to debt management after announcing that it would double the scale of long-term Treasury buybacks. They anticipate gradual adjustments rather than a major policy shift, with the Treasury likely to communicate more frequently outside its quarterly refinancing announcements and use policy signaling more broadly as a policy tool. The strategists said language in last week’s announcement may leave the Treasury room to increase long-term buybacks beyond the initially proposed minimum of $4 billion. Such operations can attract as much as $20 billion in bids, giving the Treasury considerable scope to expand them in the near term. The Treasury could also avoid specifying the exact size of long-term buybacks when it publishes an updated buyback plan, thereby retaining operational flexibility.

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