Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded to roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, offering partial relief after months of severe disruption on a route that normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Goldman Sachs estimates combined Gulf exports of crude and petroleum products at 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, still 7 million to 8 million bpd below pre-conflict volumes but well above March lows of 5 million to 6 million bpd. U.S. officials estimate Hormuz flows at 8 million to 10 million bpd, while commercial trackers report lower figures because some tankers sail without consistent identification signals. Improving exports have reduced part of the war premium, with Brent near $90 a barrel and heading for a weekly decline after trading close to $95. Prediction markets assign a 2% chance of crude reaching a new all-time high by September 30 and show 11.5% YES contracts in a December 31 higher-price market. Iran has linked a broader reopening to an end to the regional conflict and discussed a shipping corridor with Oman, leaving markets between improving physical flows and incomplete normalization. Saudi Aramco has said replenishing inventories after an estimated 1.8 billion-barrel net supply loss could take at least 18 months even if the strait reopens more fully.