Treasury yields rise as Fed Governor Warsh signals September rate-hike risk

  • Kevin Warsh said the Fed should resume rate hikes if inflation remains sticky.
  • The two-year Treasury yield surged 12 basis points to 4.35%.
  • CME FedWatch priced a 38% chance of a September quarter-point hike.

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh delivered hawkish comments that led investors to reprice the chance of a September interest-rate increase. The policy-sensitive 2-year yield surged 12 basis points to 4.35%, its highest level in more than a month, while the benchmark 10-year yield advanced 6 basis points to 4.12%. Speaking to the Economic Club of New York, Warsh urged continued vigilance on inflation and said the central bank should not hesitate to resume rate increases if price pressures prove sticky, pointing to resilient consumer spending and a tight labor market. CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed futures pricing a 38% probability of a quarter-point hike at the September 19-20 meeting, up from 22% a week earlier. Selling extended across the curve, with the 5-year yield up 9 basis points to 3.98% and the 30-year up 4 basis points to 4.18%, while the 2-year/10-year inversion deepened to minus 23 basis points. The move weighed on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, strengthened the dollar, and reinforced higher-for-longer rate pressure on housing after existing-home sales fell 18% year-over-year as of June.

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