Six months into the Iran war, OPEC+ has lost influence over oil prices as the conflict shut the Strait of Hormuz, damaged energy infrastructure in several OPEC countries and reduced the alliance’s market share. OPEC+ accounted for about 40% of global oil output in July, down from more than 48% before the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February; the United Arab Emirates’ withdrawal from OPEC in May accounted for about four to five percentage points of the decline. Its core group of seven producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, represented only a quarter of global output. Since March, the group has announced six output increases, but most remained largely unfulfilled because exports were blocked. At the same time, China bought roughly 400 million fewer barrels than during the same period last year, with lower purchases linked to a fuel-export ban, reduced refining output and wider electric-transport use. Analysts say China has become the oil market’s swing demand centre, helping cap prices in 2026 amid what they describe as the worst-ever supply disruption.