Japan’s July 31 yen intervention revives memories of Asian financial crisis

Japan’s latest effort to support the yen has revived memories of the Asian financial crisis, former top currency diplomat Naoyuki Shinohara said. He said the July 31 Japan-U.S. action differed from traditional coordinated intervention because there was no apparent shared assessment among major economies, no G7 statement and little involvement from central banks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent encouraged Japan to use dollar swap lines (arrangements for accessing foreign-currency liquidity) rather than sell U.S. Treasuries to fund future intervention, a recommendation Shinohara said echoed the late-1990s crisis, when the United States, Japan and the International Monetary Fund provided Thailand with dollar funding to strengthen its reserves. Shinohara said Japan is nowhere near Thailand’s situation, but warned that a rapid yen depreciation must be avoided. He said the Bank of Japan likely needs to raise rates from 1% to around 1.5% as soon as possible, although one or two additional increases may not reverse the yen’s downtrend. A slowdown in U.S. growth or easing Middle East tensions that reduce oil-import costs could instead help support the currency.

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