Dollar Tree raises earnings outlook as tariff refunds lift profit amid fuel-cost risks

  • Dollar Tree raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance after tariff refunds lifted quarterly profit, while Dollar General also exceeded market expectations.
  • Dollar Tree reported $2.70 in adjusted diluted EPS, including a $1.31 tariff-refund benefit, and 3.7% comparable-store sales growth; Dollar General reported 3.5% same-store sales growth.
  • Both retailers cited stronger value-oriented traffic amid high fuel prices but warned that fuel and freight costs could weigh on second-half margins; Dollar Tree's third-quarter EPS outlook trailed consensus.

Dollar Tree raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted diluted EPS outlook to $7.70-$8.05 from $6.70-$7.10, including an estimated $0.60 per-share tariff-refund benefit, while holding its $20.5 billion-$20.7 billion sales forecast. Second-quarter adjusted diluted EPS was $2.70, including a $1.31 tariff-refund gain; underlying EPS of $1.39 beat the $1.14 consensus as sales rose 7% to $4.89 billion and comparable-store sales increased 3.7%. Dollar General also beat expectations, reporting 3.5% same-store sales growth, raising its full-year sales forecast to 2.5%-2.9%, and projecting fiscal 2026 EPS of $7.80-$8.00, including a $0.25 tariff-refund contribution. Both retailers said elevated gasoline and freight costs could pressure margins, while stronger discount-store traffic reflected value-seeking across income groups.

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