Global food inflation could reach roughly 5% on an annualized basis in the first half of 2027, nearly doubling from an estimated 2.8% in the first half of 2026, as fertilizer disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closures coincide with a potentially persistent super El Niño. JPMorgan estimates the combined shocks could add 1.3 to 1.5 percentage points to peak food inflation and 0.3 to 0.6 percentage points to global headline inflation. Emerging markets in Asia and Latin America, including India, Indonesia, Brazil and Colombia, face greater exposure because food carries a larger weight in their CPI baskets and their agriculture depends heavily on imported fertilizer and weather conditions.