Mexico posted a $848 million merchandise trade deficit in July 2026, compared with a $80.9 million deficit a year earlier and the largest gap since January. Imports rose 45% year-on-year to $82.27 billion, led by a 56.3% increase in intermediate goods, while exports climbed 43.7% to $81.42 billion. Non-oil exports increased 45%, including a 49.8% rise in shipments to the United States. A separate latest release cited a July deficit of $0.848 billion after a $4.09 billion surplus in June, compared with the existing record's seasonally adjusted figures of a $0.465 billion July surplus and a $3.843 billion June surplus. The differing results indicate that the releases use different reported measures and should not be combined. The July data underscore the volatility of Mexico's external trade and may influence expectations for the peso, economic growth and Banco de México policy, although one month does not establish a trend. Investors will watch future trade data and key export sectors such as autos and oil to determine whether the deficit persists.