Sweden raises GDP growth forecast to 2.5% after Q2 rebound

  • Sweden raised its GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.3% in June after GDP expanded 1.4% quarter on quarter in Q2 2025.
  • The Q2 increase matched economists’ forecasts and followed a flat first quarter, with household consumption, services, manufacturing and construction gaining.
  • The recovery supported expectations for gradual Riksbank easing, while households remained gloomy and the government faced an opposition lead before the Sept. 13 election.

Sweden’s centre-right coalition raised its GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.3% in June and kept its 2027 projection at 2.5%, as a 1.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion in the second quarter of 2025 underscored a broad-based recovery. Statistics Sweden said household consumption and services led the gain, with manufacturing and construction also advancing, while exports grew more slowly. Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson said Sweden was in a significantly stronger position than in 2022, citing improved inflation, recovery and relative growth. The government hopes the economic improvement will strengthen its position before the Sept. 13 election, but households, particularly lower-income groups, remain pessimistic and a Thursday poll showed the ruling coalition and Sweden Democrats trailing the opposition 45.6% to 52.4%. The data also supported expectations that the Riksbank, Sweden’s central bank, can pursue gradual monetary easing as inflation has fallen below 1%, although second-half risks include trade tensions, global disruptions, inflationary pressures and geopolitical shocks.

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