Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used a high-profile Jackson Hole speech to renew his inflation-fighting stance and open the door to potential rate increases in coming months, increasing pressure on the central bank ahead of its mid-September meeting if inflation does not improve. He said officials who left rates unchanged at the July 28-29 meeting preferred to await intermeeting data, yet underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved even as gasoline prices eased somewhat, remaining broad-based and above the Fed’s 2% target. More than half of the goods and services the government tracks have risen 3% or more over the past year, well above the pre-pandemic share of roughly one-third, and Warsh argued inflation would not necessarily fall back to 2% on its own—a view shared by the three officials who favored hikes in July. He did not commit to timing, though analysts said September is a real possibility and the next price report, due days before the meeting, could prove decisive. Markets had already lifted September hike odds on Kalshi to 47% and on CME FedWatch to about 55.7%–60%, with the 30-year Treasury yield near 5.21%; longer-term yields barely rose after the latest remarks, while the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.66%. Much of the speech also stressed artificial intelligence as a potential growth and productivity boost that could ease rate pressure, though Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff called that outlook overblown. Background tensions over Fed independence, including last year’s pressure on then-Chair Jerome Powell and the unresolved case of Governor Lisa Cook, remained part of the conference backdrop. Separate newer material places a similar stance in 2026 with 3.7% PCE inflation and a 3.5%–3.75% funds range; those details conflict with the September-focused market account and are retained as a source discrepancy.