Fed research highlights stablecoins’ dual impact on dollar dominance and crisis finance

  • New York Fed research found wallets linked to crisis countries were more likely to receive dollar stablecoins during crisis weeks, while Kansas City Fed analysis said the tokens could reinforce dollar dominance.
  • The New York study estimated a 1.8% increase in receipt probability, or 1.9% under a separate specification, while approximately 98% of stablecoins are dollar-denominated.
  • Stablecoins can support Treasury demand and dollar-based payments, but self-custodied transfers may weaken bank-based capital controls, prompting calls for regulatory clarity.

Two Federal Reserve analyses present complementary findings on dollar stablecoins: a New York Fed staff paper found crisis-linked wallets became more likely to receive tokens, potentially weakening bank-based capital controls, while a Kansas City Fed report argued that dollar dominance is more likely to be reinforced. The New York study covered nine episodes across eight countries from 2021 to 2025, using roughly 4.5 million wallet-event-week observations tied to 19 major dollar-pegged stablecoins. It found a 1.8% increase in receipt probability during crisis weeks, a separate estimate of 1.9%, significantly higher receipt volumes and a 1.3% increase in sending probability two weeks later. The Kansas City analysis, authored by Gordon Liao, Eswar Prasad and Tony Zhang, said approximately 98% of stablecoins are dollar-denominated, issuers typically hold short-term U.S. Treasurys and cash equivalents, and euro- and yuan-based alternatives remain marginal. Together, the reports suggest stablecoins can expand access to dollars and support Treasury demand while also moving some crisis-era dollar activity beyond domestic banking chokepoints. Neither analysis establishes that stablecoins caused currency depreciation, and the New York findings apply to wallets already connected to stablecoin activity rather than entire populations.

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