S&P affirms China’s A+ sovereign rating with stable outlook

S&P Global Ratings affirmed China’s sovereign credit rating at "A+" with a "stable" outlook on August 28, citing a high likelihood that economic growth will remain above 4% over the next one to two years. The agency expects the Chinese government to provide larger-scale fiscal support, while noting that progress in supply chains, technological capabilities and manufacturing has strengthened resilience against global uncertainties, including US-China trade frictions and the Iran conflict. The prolonged property sector downturn and weak personal consumption remain concerns for domestic demand. A responsible official from China’s Ministry of Finance said the decision confirms China’s macroeconomic resilience, fiscal soundness and risk-control effectiveness. The official said the first half of 2026 delivered both quality improvement and reasonable quantitative growth, and that the government would intensify coordinated fiscal and financial policies in the second half. The IMF has raised its 2026 China growth forecast to 4.6%. Fitch Ratings has separately warned that weak domestic demand could push China back toward deflation. The rating affirmation removes downgrade-related repricing pressure on Chinese sovereign and quasi-sovereign bonds, helping support offshore renminbi bond spreads, overseas financing conditions and the stability of capital inflows.

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