Commerzbank links BoJ rate-hike uncertainty to yen pressure

  • Commerzbank says the BoJ is nearing a possible rate hike but warns that a delay could intensify yen selling.
  • The BoJ policy rate was reported at 0% to 0.1% after Japan moved away from negative rates earlier in 2025.
  • The source records cite a September 19-20, 2025 policy meeting and divided expectations in early January 2026 over subsequent meetings.

Commerzbank analysts say persistent inflation, particularly in services, and a generally positive wage outlook are bringing the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Japan's central bank, closer to a potential rate hike. However, the bank has warned that failing to raise rates could place significant further pressure on the yen by signaling insufficient commitment to policy normalization. A hike could support the currency by narrowing its interest-rate differential with major economies, especially the United States, although sustained yen strength would depend on continued BoJ action. The BoJ has not confirmed a timeline, and the source records refer to different policy windows: one cites a September 19-20, 2025 meeting, while another reports divided expectations in early January 2026 over upcoming meetings. The policy rate was reported at 0% to 0.1% after the move away from negative rates earlier in 2025. Yen movements affect Japanese exporters, import costs, borrowing conditions, carry trades, global capital flows and risk sentiment.

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