Sterling falls toward $1.35 as Fed rate-hike odds rise and BoE bets shift

  • Sterling fell toward $1.35 as Warsh’s remarks strengthened the dollar and increased expectations for a September Fed rate hike.
  • Markets priced a 45.5% chance of a September Fed hike and 58.5% for October, while BoE tightening expectations moved into 2027.
  • UK inflation reached 2.9% in July, and the August CPI report due September 11 is expected to help determine the Fed’s next move.

Sterling fell toward $1.35, its weakest level since Aug. 19, after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation had not meaningfully slowed and financial conditions were not clearly restrictive. Markets assigned a 45.5% probability to a September Fed rate increase, up from 31% a week earlier, and 58.5% to an October hike, although the decision remains dependent on the August CPI report due September 11 and other economic data. Lower Brent crude prices eased UK inflation concerns and pushed expectations for the next Bank of England rate increase into 2027 from late 2026. UK inflation reached 2.9% in July, while subdued labor-market conditions could keep the BoE cautious. One related account instead identifies Jerome H. Powell as Fed chair and cites a 3.63% federal funds rate and 3.4% July inflation, underscoring conflicting details in the source material.

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