IDC sees record smartphone shipment drop as Apple gains share in 2026

  • IDC projects global smartphone shipments will fall a record 16.7% in 2026, while market value rises 6.3% to $613 billion.
  • NAND and DRAM costs have increased more than 300% year over year, pushing average selling prices up 27.6% to $581.
  • Apple’s iOS share is forecast to reach a record 23.6% as iPhone shipments gain, while memory costs, AI concerns and CEO succession shape its outlook.

Global smartphone shipments are projected to drop a record 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units, according to IDC, even as total market value grows 6.3% to $613 billion. Average selling prices are expected to surge 27.6% to $581 as NAND and DRAM memory costs rise more than 300% year over year, with elevated prices expected to persist until at least 2028. Android shipments are forecast to contract 24.3% as manufacturers reduce lower-priced devices, while iOS shipments fall only 1.3%, lifting Apple’s market share nearly four percentage points to a record 23.6%. Apple’s iPhone shipments also rose 13% year over year in the second quarter of 2026, driven largely by the iPhone 17 series, stable pricing and market-share efforts. Huawei’s HarmonyOS shipments are expected to nearly triple to 51 million units as it maintains disciplined pricing and gains share in China. Foldable smartphone shipments are forecast to rise 12.6% to 22.9 million units in 2026 and another 18% in 2027, with Apple projected to ship more than 17 million foldable iPhones in 2027 and capture roughly 40% of global foldable shipments. The week also included concerns from Ruby on Rails creator David Heinemeier Hansson that the Mac’s tightly controlled environment could become a disadvantage as AI agents expand, a Pokémon visit to Apple Park, Apple’s Sept. 9 Surprise and shine teaser and the planned Sept. 1 succession of Tim Cook by John Ternus as CEO.

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