The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate at 2.25% on Sept. 2 and leave it unchanged through the rest of this year and until the third quarter of next year, according to a Reuters poll of 35 economists. The outlook was unchanged after Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney ended the latest round of tariff negotiations with the United States on Aug. 22 and announced retaliatory tariffs and support measures for affected businesses. Policymakers have held rates steady since October while monitoring inflation and weaker economic activity amid trade tensions and the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran that began in late February. Inflation was at the top of the Bank of Canada’s 1%-3% target range in July, but stable core inflation and signs of weak demand give policymakers room to wait. The rate is forecast to rise to 2.50% in the fourth quarter of next year, while 47% of economists who gave a view expect at least one increase by the end of the second quarter of 2027. Economists generally expect an escalation in trade tensions to weigh more on Canadian GDP growth than on inflation, although a weaker Canadian dollar could add price pressure. The economy grew at an annualized 3.3% last quarter, rebounding from a technical recession on stronger exports and solid domestic demand.