Warsh Hawkish Turn, Nvidia Beat and Cybersecurity Rally Drive Markets

  • Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole message on inflation, financial conditions and employment.
  • Nvidia reported $96.2 billion in second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue, up 106% year over year.
  • CrowdStrike shares rose 20.5%, while Salesforce led the S&P 500 after strong quarterly results.

Three developments dominated markets this week: Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole message, Nvidia reported second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, and cybersecurity shares posted record gains. Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's 2% PCE inflation target as a "firm, fixed target," said recent data had not shown a meaningful improvement in underlying trends, and argued that financial conditions were not restrictive. Core PCE was running at 3.7% over the trailing 12 months and 4.1% annualized over the past six months, while the 4.1% unemployment rate was consistent with full employment. Markets raised the probability of a September 16 rate hike to 57.5%, from 39.9% a week earlier and 24% a month earlier, while the U.S. Dollar Index reached 99.5. Nvidia's revenue beat and stronger guidance sent its shares 8.74% higher, although the stock later surrendered nearly half the gain. CrowdStrike jumped 20.5%, its largest one-day rise, after record net new ARR and strong Falcon Flex growth. Salesforce also led the S&P 500 for the week after exceeding earnings expectations, raising guidance and expanding its Anthropic partnership. Investors now turn to the BLS Employment Situation report for July and ISM purchasing managers' indexes.

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