BoE's Bailey sees muted inflation effects as policy outlook remains uncertain

  • Andrew Bailey said second-round UK inflation effects remain fairly muted amid weak labour.
  • Traders fully priced a quarter-point Bank of England rate hike this year.
  • Bailey led a July 6-3 hold before the September 17 policy decision.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium that second-round inflation effects in the UK remain fairly muted and that a persistently weak labour market allows policymakers to keep watching the situation. The remarks were his first on the policy outlook since the July 30 meeting, when he led a 6-3 majority that held the policy rate at 3.75% and cautioned against reading the decision as a step toward hikes. Bailey stressed meeting-by-meeting assessment and warned that forward guidance can drift into unconditional policy promises. UK CPI has rebounded for the first time since March on energy-price increases tied to the Iran conflict, while August surveys put households’ one-year inflation expectations at 3.9%, roughly double the Bank’s target. Labour market indicators diverge, with job vacancies at five-year lows, businesses cutting jobs and private-sector wage growth still slowing. Markets have fully priced a quarter-point hike this year ahead of the September 17 decision, even as committee divisions deepen; July hike voter Catherine Mann flagged U.S. spillovers, rising dollar dominance and potential weakening of monetary policy transmission, and short-dated UK gilts have underperformed U.S. Treasuries.

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