Iran is struggling to cover a gasoline shortfall as the U.S. naval blockade of its southern ports has nearly halted imports and strikes during the U.S.-Israeli war have reduced domestic refining capacity. Government figures put the deficit at just over a tenth of daily gasoline consumption, a gap usually filled through imports. Long lines have been reported at stations in Tehran, Isfahan, Bandar Abbas and other cities, including during the early morning hours. The government is wary of reducing costly fuel subsidies because higher pump prices have previously triggered large-scale protests. Iran has abundant crude oil but insufficient refining capacity to meet domestic gasoline demand. The disruption adds to pressure from expanded U.S. sanctions on oil and gas revenue, shipping, aviation and digital assets, 88% inflation, a rial trading above 2 million per dollar, reduced oil exports and regional conflicts. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian previously said the ongoing war had worsened the fuel shortage, ISNA reported. Market pricing for Pezeshkian’s potential departure by December 31 has risen to 16.5% YES, from 16% a day earlier and 14% a week earlier. The market for Iran agreeing to halt uranium enrichment by year-end remains at 13.5% YES. Observers will monitor government fuel measures, public dissent, military activity and statements from Pezeshkian, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps and other influential bodies. Vera offers live prediction-market analysis and invites users to sign up.