Iranian security sources dispute U.S. claims that commercial shipping is moving freely through the Strait of Hormuz, saying Tehran continues to enforce a closure on its terms. Daily traffic fell below 20 vessels by late August 2026, from about 130 before hostilities escalated, an 85% decline. U.S. Central Command, however, said it facilitated passage for more than 1,500 commercial vessels and the movement of 750 million barrels of oil in August alone. The 21-mile-wide waterway normally carries roughly one-fifth of global petroleum and significant LNG exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. The confrontation follows the escalation of the broader U.S.-Iran conflict in February 2026, the creation of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority in May and a June 17 memorandum allowing fee-free safe passage for 60 days. Renewed hostilities in July ended that arrangement, with Iranian officials saying the strait will remain closed until the United States lifts what Tehran calls a blockade. The disruption has raised insurance costs and encouraged shadow-fleet operations, while the United States has promoted a southern corridor alternative. Earlier reports of a six-month U.S. Navy mine-clearing operation, Donald Trump's claim that all mines had been cleared, and the absence of confirmed mine sightings have further complicated assessments of the maritime threat. International safety warnings remain active, and prediction-market pricing for zero ship transits by August 31 has fallen from 33% to 10.5% and subsequently declined further, though it has not ruled out a complete halt. Oil, natural gas, petrochemical feedstock and container traffic are all exposed to the standoff.