Warsh Hawkish Turn, Nvidia Beat and Cybersecurity Rally Drive Markets

  • Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole message lifted September 16 rate-hike odds to 57.5%, while July headline PCE inflation held at 3.7%.
  • Nvidia reported about $96.2 billion in fiscal second-quarter revenue and forecast $108 billion for the next quarter, with shares rising as much as 8.74%.
  • CrowdStrike gained 20.5% and Salesforce led the S&P 500 after strong results, while Bitcoin remained below $80,000 and a Coinbase-linked token-backed mortgage launched.

Markets repriced rate expectations after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish Jackson Hole message, while July PCE inflation remained elevated and Nvidia, CrowdStrike and Salesforce reported strong results. Warsh reaffirmed the 2% PCE target as a "firm, fixed target," said underlying inflation trends had not meaningfully improved and argued financial conditions were not restrictive. The probability of a September 16 rate hike rose to 57.5% from 39.9% a week earlier and 24% a month earlier, while the U.S. Dollar Index reached 99.5. Separately, headline PCE inflation held at 3.7% in July, above the 3.6% expectation, and core PCE was reported at 3.7% year over year and 4.1% annualized over six months. Nvidia reported $96.22 billion in revenue and $2.22 in earnings per share for its fiscal second quarter, with revenue described in the later market update as second-quarter fiscal 2027 revenue of $96.2 billion, up 106% year over year; its shares rose 7.27% after hours in the earlier snapshot and 8.74% the following session before giving back nearly half the gain. CrowdStrike gained 20.5% after record net new annual recurring revenue, while Salesforce led the S&P 500 after exceeding estimates, raising guidance and expanding its Anthropic partnership. Bitcoin consolidated below $80,000, and Better Mortgage and Coinbase opened a token-backed mortgage to Coinbase One members.

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