France keeps A+ rating as Fitch warns debt downgrade risk is rising

  • Fitch retained France's A+ rating with a stable outlook despite worsening fiscal projections.
  • Fitch projects deficits of 5.2% in 2026 and 5.5% in 2027, with debt reaching 122.7% in 2028.
  • Moody's and S&P Global Ratings are scheduled to review France on October 23 and November 27.

France retained its A+ sovereign debt rating from Fitch Ratings with a stable outlook on August 28, 2026, avoiding a downgrade despite a weaker fiscal outlook. Fitch projected public deficits of 5.2% of GDP in 2026, 5.5% in 2027 and 5.2% in 2028, while public debt could reach 122.7% of GDP by 2028, compared with 117.5% at the end of March, according to Insee. The agency cited France's large and prosperous economy, solid banking sector and diversified investor base, but warned that short-term growth would remain modest. It identified higher interest costs, additional defence commitments, weak growth potential, rising indebtedness and political fragmentation as constraints on fiscal consolidation. France narrowly avoided recession in the second quarter, cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.7% from 0.9%, and saw August inflation accelerate to 2.4% year-on-year. Borrowing rates above 4% are raising refinancing costs. Attention now turns to Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's 2027 budget, which must be advanced without a parliamentary majority and amid pressure ahead of the presidential election. Moody's is due to review France on October 23, followed by S&P Global Ratings on November 27. S&P rates France A+ with a stable outlook, while Moody's assigns Aa3.

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