Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on Japan to account for the United States’ use of Japanese airbases in military strikes against Iran, while an anonymous senior Iranian source described overnight U.S.-Iran hostilities as limited and contained and warned Iran would respond strongly if further provoked. The developments have heightened concern over possible Iranian retaliation, including airspace restrictions and maritime disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route whose past disruptions have affected global oil markets. Two prediction markets show low near-term expectations: the implied probability of a full Iranian airspace closure is 0.2% by August 31, 5.5% by September 30 and 17.5% by December 31, while the chance of a U.S.-Iran agreement to restore normal Strait traffic is 0.4% YES by August 31, 4.8% by September 16 and 10.5% by October 1. Officials, Iranian state media, Reuters and other wire services will be watched for developments that could change market pricing. The analysis is powered by Vera, which invites users to sign up for live prediction-market coverage.