Fed may raise rates next month as Warsh shifts policy default

  • Warsh signaled the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates next month.
  • September 11 will bring the August CPI release before the September meeting.
  • Cohen said firm data could weaken the case for inflation returning to 2%.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh has eased some concerns about his approach to fighting inflation but may have shifted the central bank’s default stance toward a rate increase next month, Nick Timiraos wrote. A hike could anger the White House weeks before the U.S. midterm elections, while holding rates steady could revive doubts that Warsh’s remarks had temporarily addressed. Two points in his Friday speech suggested a possible increase: Warsh found it difficult to describe current financial conditions as restrictive, and stronger summer inflation data had not convinced him that underlying trends were improving. Before Friday, the Fed’s default position was to leave rates unchanged unless incoming data supported action. Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen said Warsh reversed that presumption, making a hike the default unless data show it is unnecessary. The decision will depend on developments before the September meeting, especially the August CPI (consumer inflation gauge) release scheduled for September 11. Cohen said the Fed should not raise rates if the data show no need for action, while firm data could weaken the case that inflation is returning toward the Fed’s 2% target.

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