Warsh eases inflation concerns but raises prospect of Fed hike next month

  • Warsh addressed concerns about his inflation strategy while indicating a possible rate increase next month.
  • Three weeks before the midterm elections, a hike could anger the White House.
  • Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen said Warsh reversed the Fed’s previous hold-unless-justified approach.

Federal Reserve Chair Warsh eased some concerns about his approach to combating inflation, but his remarks also increased the possibility of an interest-rate hike next month. Nick Timiraos said the decision could create a difficult political and policy trade-off: raising rates might anger the White House weeks before the midterm elections, while holding rates steady could revive the doubts Warsh had addressed. Two elements of Friday’s speech pointed toward a possible hike. Warsh indicated it would be difficult to describe current financial conditions as restrictive, meaning sufficiently tight to slow economic activity, and said favorable inflation data over the summer had not convinced him that underlying trends were improving. The Fed had previously been expected to remain on hold unless incoming data justified action. Former Fed Vice Chair Cohen said Warsh’s remarks reversed that default logic.

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