A potentially record-setting 2026-27 super El Niño could peak at approximately 3.2°C between late 2026 and early 2027, about 15% stronger than the 2015-2016 event, according to Barclays sustainable investment research analyst Craig Rye. Citing multi-model projections from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Rye warned that rising confidence in the event increases the risk of disruption across agricultural, energy and industrial commodity markets. Drought, flooding and extreme temperatures could lift palm oil, coconut oil and rubber prices 30% to 40% over 18 months, robusta coffee 20% to 30%, rice 10% to 20%, aluminum and copper by as much as 20%, and thermal coal 20% to 40%. The pattern is already affecting Chilean copper output and shipping conditions, while Panama Canal transit restrictions, higher auction prices for the largest locks, disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz and a parched Rhine are adding pressure to global logistics. The Quantix Commodity Index has climbed more than 22.5% since late June to an all-time high.